tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672881018321440403.post4238901334574556013..comments2024-01-08T09:12:42.920-05:00Comments on SF and Nonsense: Psycho historyEdward M. Lernerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15620756142619513714noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672881018321440403.post-3999722406987258262008-09-19T18:37:00.000-04:002008-09-19T18:37:00.000-04:00Thanks for contributing -- two Eds are better than...Thanks for contributing -- two Eds are better than one. (Sorry. Couldn't help myself.)<BR/><BR/>Certainly there were lights flashing before now. To my mind, the warnings and alarms underestimated the problem (the scale of which, I suspect, remains to be discovered). And the early alarms failed to convince enough people (or to waken the regulators asleep at the switch).<BR/><BR/>Psychohistory in the Asimovian sense -- if we had it -- would have been much more convincing.Edward M. Lernerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15620756142619513714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4672881018321440403.post-65188257195565467872008-09-19T17:43:00.000-04:002008-09-19T17:43:00.000-04:00Actually, the statistical analyses were the proble...Actually, the statistical analyses were the problem because a: the models were being fed "massaged" data which made the risks look lower than they really were and b: the models' relationship to real economic facts was in many cases tenuous at best.<BR/><BR/>If you go through the archives of a blog "The Daily Reckoning" you'll find warnings of a meltdown going back five years and the alarm being run with increasing vigor over the past six months.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10499127305100956578noreply@blogger.com